If you want to get a feel for how many home buyers there are currently active in the housing market, the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index is a good place to start. It tracks the number of contracts to buy homes signed during the month and, because it measures contract signings and not closings, it’s a good future indicator of where home sales will be a month or so down the road. In short, if there are a lot of pending sales, there will likely be a lot of final sales. Which is why, February’s results are a pretty good indication that the spring season is ramping up. Contract signings were up 3.1 percent in February and rebounded in all four regions of the country. The largest increase was in the Northeast, though pending sales also saw significant improvement in the South. Still, despite the gains, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun says the pace falls short of last year’s level. “Contract signings rebounded in most areas in February but the gains were not enough to keep up with last February’s level, which was the second highest in over a decade,” Yun said. More here.
Archive for March 2018
Mortgage Loan Demand Grows Despite Higher Rates
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates rose last week but the increase did nothing to dampen demand for loans. In fact, refinance activity was up 7 percent from the week before and requests for purchase loan applications increased 3 percent. Demand for loans to buy homes is now 8 percent higher than at the same time last year. What does this mean? Well, the fact that demand for mortgages rose during a week when average mortgage rates were also up indicates that Americans are not being dissuaded by higher interest rates. Though mortgage rates do affect affordability, they are still low by historical standards and, it appears, consumers either consider them favorable or may be concerned that waiting any longer to refinance or buy a home may mean rates rise even higher. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.
Homeowners Say They’re Optimistic About Buying
Asking Americans whether or not they think this is a good time to buy a house can be an imprecise way of measuring interest in the housing market. That’s because there are a number of personal factors that are weighed when deciding whether or not it’s time to make a move. Which is why survey results can sometimes show one group of people who are pessimistic about their options, while another group expresses optimism. For example, a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors found optimism about buying a house is running high among current homeowners but not as much with renters. That’s due to recent equity gains. In short, as home prices have increased, homeowners have benefited and now see an opportunity to turn their gains into a new house. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says this may be good for the overall market. “There’s no question that a majority of homeowners have amassed considerable equity gains since the downturn,” Yun said. “Supply conditions would improve measurably, and ultimately lead to more sales, if a growing number of homeowners finally decide that this spring is the time to list their home for sale.” More here.
Number Of New Homes At 9-Year High
There are now more new homes for sale than there have been at any time since March 2009. In fact, new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development show there were 305,000 new homes for sale in February, which is two percent higher than the previous month. This is good news for the housing market and hopeful home buyers this spring. That’s because, an increasing number of new homes will help relieve upward pressure on home prices. However, though it’s encouraging that there are more new homes for sale, there are still far fewer than there were during the housing market’s peak in 2006. Also, the new homes that are being built tend to be more expensive and out of reach for many first-time home buyers. For example, the median sales price for new homes sold in February was $326,800. Still, more new homes on the market will have a positive effect on the overall market, which is why residential construction numbers remain among the most important barometers for today’s market. More here.
What Strategies Are Buyers Using This Spring?
From all accounts, this spring’s housing market is going to be a busy one. High buyer demand has carried over from last year and so have inventory concerns in many markets. In other words, anyone hoping to find and buy a house this spring should be prepared for competition from other interested buyers. What does that mean? Well, in short, it means moving quickly and saving up some extra money to sweeten the pot, if necessary. In fact, according to a recent survey, home buyers say they are checking online listings every day and 40 percent say they’re planning to put more than 20 percent down. Other strategies buyers say they’re employing this spring to beat the competition include setting price alerts and offering above asking price. Overall, home buyers are aware of current conditions and are preparing themselves for the possibility of having to win over a home seller with an offer that exceeds all others. As evidence of this, just six percent of survey respondents said they are doing nothing to prepare for competition from other buyers. More here.
Sales of Existing Homes Rebound In February
Sales of previously owned homes declined in both December and January. But that isn’t all that surprising. Cold weather in much of the country, combined with the end of the year and the holidays often causes home sales to slow down. This year, however, with current inventory levels and affordability conditions, some worried that the slow sales pace may mean something more significant and could even lead to a disappointing spring season. But new numbers from the National Association of Realtors provide some relief, showing February sales rebounding 3 percent from the month before, with single-family home sales up 4.2 percent. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says increases in the South and West made up for slumping sales in colder areas like the Midwest and Northeast. “A big jump in existing sales in the South and West last month helped the housing market recover from a two-month sales slump,” Yun says. “The very healthy U.S. economy and labor market are creating a sizable interest in buying a home in early 2018.” More here.
Mortgage Rates Drop After Upward Trend
So far this year, average mortgage rates have been more up than down. But, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, rates took a break last week, with slight declines in the contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances and loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Joel Kan, an MBA economist, told CNBC the rate decline was due to several factors. “Treasury rates declined slightly on average last week, as a mixed bag of economic news and geopolitical concerns made investors more cautious overall,” Kan said. “A significant driver of the decline was retail sales data showing less than expected spending by U.S. households for the third month.” Still, despite the rate decline, mortgage application demand was down from the week before. Mostly, this was due to a drop in refinance activity, as demand for loans to buy homes was up 1 percent and is now 6 percent higher than at the same time last year. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.
Homes Are On The Market For Fewer Days
These days, there are a lot of people interested in buying a house. A stronger economy, more jobs, and years of pent-up demand have led to a rising number of Americans who are eager to make a move. But while that’s positive, more buyers active in the market also means homes sell faster. In fact, according to Nationwide’s recent Health of Housing Markets Report, the average home was on the market for just 67 days in 2017 – with houses in some market going in half that time. That means, buyers need to do their homework, cause they may not have the luxury of being able to take their time debating each home’s pros and cons. It also means good news for sellers. “As we head into spring and the traditional season when sales heat up, buyers will find that desirable homes won’t be on the market for long,” says David Berson, Nationwide’s senior vice president and chief economist. “Today, the average home is on the market almost half the length of time that it was six years ago. Of course, that is good news for people looking to sell their home.” More here.
Housing Market May Be Ready To Shift Gears
As a potential home buyer or seller, you may not think you have much interest in the economy, consumer confidence, or even the details of the housing market’s monthly ups-and-downs. However, all the moving parts of the economy affect one another and, in order to stay savvy about your next move, it’s good to keep an eye on where things are. Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group makes it easy by providing a monthly update on where things are and where they may be headed. According to their most recent outlook, the economy and housing market were both fairly slow to start the year but may be ready to shift gears. According to the release, “The downshift is expected to be temporary as economic fundamentals remain positive. Rising household net worth, upbeat consumer confidence, and a strong labor market have now been buoyed by legislative stimulus.” In short, the group expects that the economy will grow over the coming months, along with Americans’ economic optimism. More here.
Are More New Houses On The Way?
Generally speaking, there are fewer homes available to buy right now than is considered normal. And though conditions will differ from one market to the next, when inventory is an issue, it leads to competition and higher prices. That’s because, there are too many buyers vying for the number of homes currently available. But when there are more buyers than there are homes for sale, conditions are also ripe for builders. And typically, they’ll take notice and build more homes to accommodate those buyers. Based on recent readings of the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index – which measures builders’ confidence in the market for new homes – that may be where the market is right now. For example, builders confidence has been at or above 70 for four consecutive months, on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good than poor. And most of their optimism is based on market conditions and their expectations for future sales, rather than current traffic. Which means, builders see an opportunity in this year’s market and may begin ramping up construction of new homes. If that happens, it’ll provide more choices for buyers and help slow spiking price increases. More here.
